I think we’re finally starting to see the maturation of Netflix’s domestic business. As reported in yesterday’s Q1 Earnings call, Netflix only added 1.3M US subscribers, compared 2.3M in the same period last year. On the bright side, Netflix added 7.9M overseas subs in Q1, bringing their total worldwide subscriber base to 148.9M
What’s concerning about Netflix’s US business is slowing new subs at a time when they’re about to catch a whole bunch of fresh competition. Later this year Disney will be launching its OTT service called Disney+ (keep in mind The Mouse will be removing its content from Netflix when it a launches, so this one’s a double whammy.) In 2019, we’re also expecting to see new OTT services launched by AT&T, Apple, T-Mobile, etc., so Netflix’s video streaming sandbox is about to get a whole lot more crowded.
It’ll be interesting to see if yesterday’s numbers are the first sign of a plateauing of Netflix’s business. I guess time will tell.